Author: Andriy Kryvorotov, Head of the Air Freight Department at Boxline Ukraine
As February approaches and begins, the air cargo market in the Asia-Pacific region enters a phase of seasonal slowdown. Notably, this year the market did not receive the expected pre-holiday momentum ahead of the Chinese New Year, which is already reflected in demand, freight rates, and the structure of available capacity.
Demand: Long-Haul Weakens, Intra-Asia Remains Stable
Since the beginning of February, demand for long-haul air freight from Asia to Europe and the United States has been declining. According to market observations, e-commerce volumes on key long-haul routes continue to decrease, directly affecting aircraft load factors.
At the same time, the Intra-Asia segment demonstrates relative stability.
The most active Intra-Asia routes include:
• China – Taiwan
• China – Singapore
• China – Malaysia
• China – India
• China – Thailand
These routes form the core of regional demand and partially offset the decline in intercontinental flows.
Cargo Structure and Capacity Availability
At the same time, overall export demand remains relatively high, primarily driven by the following cargo categories:
• retail goods
• e-commerce shipments
• pharmaceutical products
• electronics
• urgent and time-critical cargo
Against this background, cargo capacity on routes to the United States and Europe is becoming increasingly limited, while short-notice shipment availability remains low at most key hubs.
Pricing Dynamics: No Significant Pre-Holiday Increase
Price dynamics confirm the general cooling of the market. According to TAC Index data, global air freight rates declined by 3.3% week-over-week. The expected significant rate increase ahead of the Chinese New Year did not materialize.
Key changes in freight rates:
• China – USA: week-over-week decline
• China – Europe: slight weekly increase, overall stable levels
• Hong Kong (HKG): continued decrease in outbound rates
• Shanghai (PVG): slight year-over-year increase
Vietnam: An Exception to the Trend
Vietnam stands out as an exception to the overall market trend.
For Vietnam:
• export rates to Europe increased week-over-week
• export rates to the United States increased week-over-week
This indicates stable demand and limited cargo capacity on these routes.
Regional Highlights: India
India remains a particularly tense market:
• Southern India (Chennai, Bangalore) — extremely limited space to the US and Europe, with rising premium rates
• Northern India (Delhi) — very strong demand, reduced allocations, and further rate increases
Planning Implications
The current market configuration clearly indicates a structural imbalance between long-haul and regional segments.
In the coming weeks, the key factors for effective air freight management will remain:
• regional route optimization
• flexible capacity management
• timely rate fixation on stable or capacity-constrained routes
For cargo owners and logistics operators, this is a period when careful analysis of data and market indicators becomes crucial for making balanced operational and commercial decisions.
