Risks of a Jet A-1 shortage in Europe and the UK are already affecting passenger traffic. For air cargo, this is not yet a crisis, but it is already a factor driving change.
What the market can expect in the next 3–6 months if current trends continue:
• a 10–25% increase in rates
• a reduction in belly capacity
• an increase in fuel surcharges
• greater schedule volatility
At the same time, cargo aviation remains more resilient thanks to flexible routes, freighter capacity, and long-term contracts.
🛫 Conclusion: Companies that quickly adapt to the new market reality and changes in the supply chain will gain an advantage.
Forecast by Andriy Kryvorotov, Director of the Aviation Department at Boxline UCL UA.
